As a young reader, I’ve always been drawn to the genre of speculative fiction. While most literature and film would attempt to accurately depict the reality we live in, Speculative fiction on the other hand, normally aims to illuminate the world by depicting something quite different from the quotidian and day-to-day reality. It shows us our world reflected, our lives extrapolated.
What is most fascinating is the technology that takes the center stage of the world in these works. In the reality of today, blockchain, the metaverse (a term originally coined by Neal Stephenson in his book Snow Crash), and Web3 are technologies that I’m cautiously excited about. One is the foundational framework, the other a means of accessing the new web that is Web3.
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Most advancements in technology, in general, do not have delineating features marking a transition from one phase to another.
Web 1.0
The internet began as a decentralized network made of computers at four universities in the United States. Largely fragmented, this network had no standards governing them until the introduction of the TCP/IP (Transmission Control Protocol/Internet Protocol). Web 1.0 arrived with the introduction of the ‘hypertext’ and newer networking technologies which allowed linking and accessing information on the web. Dubbed the ‘information superhighway’, Web 1.0 was accompanied by a rush of excitement surrounding the potential of the internet to redefine and solve problems back in the day. With the DNS (domain name system) entering the picture, decentralization soon went out the window simply because of the scaling issue Web 1.0 possessed.
Web 2.0
The bursting of the dot-com bubble was a turning point for the web. Tim O’Reilly coined the term Web 2.0 and this marked the beginning of a read-write web as opposed to the static walls of text that was Web 1.0. The web soon transitioned into a place to interact, collaborate and share with people by the pairing of content with applications and better user interfaces. Open protocols were overtaken by proprietary protocols that offered far greater capabilities which soon paved way for the tech companies — notably Google, Apple, Facebook, and Amazon — to profit from the data of users while providing them services (many of which were free to use).
An S-curve depicting the predictable life-cycle of these centralized platforms explains how the relationships with users changes from positive-sum to zero-sum pushing these organizations to extract data and compete rather than co-ordinate.
Web 3.0
What Web 3.0 aims to combat is this centralization of services and technologies which makes it harder for emerging startups and creators who would have to give in to the whims and fancies of these giants. Centralization is the core issue quoted for the transition simply because it stifles innovation while also creating a restricted internet with the rise of ‘no platforming’ of users, breaches in privacy, and algorithmic biases to name a few.
Decentralization is now the goal (yet again), with blockchain being a means to realize this goal. The three axes of decentralization -
- Architectural,
- Political
- Logical decentralization -
help achieve three fundamental goals :
- Fault tolerance,
- Attack resistance
- Collusion Resistance.
Gavin Wood’s concisely described Web 3.0 as a web of “Less trust, more truth”.
Notable about each transition is how it fuels the next. Web 1.0 was advertised in magazines, newspapers while Web 2.0 was on 1.0. Word about Web 3.0 spreads faster than those prior simply because of the foundation laid by those preceding it. News about a hypothetical Web 4.0 would spread much faster through the means of a metaverse. It is easy to find oneself lost in the news and information flooding the web today about what the future holds.
The Future?
My ‘cautious’ excitement for Web 3.0 stems from how there exists a pattern of decentralization flipping to centralization and back again.
Clayton Chistensen’s law of conservation of attractive profits is a generalization of this pattern: “When attractive profits disappear at one stage in the value chain because a product becomes modular and commoditized, the opportunity to earn attractive profits with proprietary products will usually emerge at an adjacent stage.”
Web 3.0 introduces a structural answer in the form of blockchain, which could however succumb to centralization in the far future.
An aspect of the developing future is that of finance in the form of cryptocurrencies — something that I find hard to decipher given how convoluted it is at its current stage of infancy. Crypto however is a meaningful player in terms of applications and problems it solves of existing traditional payment mechanisms.
The nature of most open-source technologies is how they begin half-baked and rely on the community to invest time, money, and effort to develop it into a useable more ‘complete’ tool. This is in contrast to proprietary technologies that present themselves as a complete package from the get go. This necessitates a shift in the way we perceive the technologies to come.
Artificial intelligence pioneer Ray Kurzweil once said, “I became interested in long-term trends because an invention has to make sense in the world in which it is finished, not the world in which it is started.”
As an enthusiastic consumer, I find myself constantly evaluating the consumer experience of technologies. An important factor that I believe is necessary as we progress towards this future is that of accessibility. Accessibility in form of the ease of adoption, use and development of the blockchain technology and applications is paramount to its success. While current conversation revolves around throughput and scalability for the most part, a frictionless means of utilizing the blockchain network relies on accessibility. The emergence of Layer 1 and Layer 2 blockchains solve technical limitations and scalability issues but are still by far less accessible than desirable. Three fundamental aspects that are to be considered are the functional accessibility, financial accessibility and practical accessibility.
The OpenID is an example of currently existing interoperable, widely accepted standard in Web 2.0. Onboarding, Fiat on- and off-ramps and interoperability between technologies are some essential accessibility features to be incorporated.In the video game industry, the success of Fortnite relied on a player’s ability to match with and play with/against players on almost every platform capable of gaming. The UPI (Unified Payment Interface) in India allows for real-time, fee-less transaction and is accessible to third-party applications (this however is centralized).
Accessibility in the form of intuitive design interfaces, robust technologies and protocols alongside useable tools accessible to developers helps promote these technologies enabling users to enter the space quickly without needing to sift through and acquire a considerable amount of knowledge first.
Thomas Kuhn in ‘The Structure of Scientific Revolutions’ notes that any truly profound scientific breakthrough “is seldom or never just an increment to what is already known. Its assimilation requires the reconstruction of prior theory and the re-evaluation of prior fact”
We are at the very initial stages of Web 3. Almost akin to the dial-up era of Web 1.0. True technological revolution requires the development of substantial new infrastructure, sustained consolidation of the market and subsequent maturity.
With reports of Binance being under investigation for tax fraud and money laundering and another recent headline pointing out that “a small group of insiders is reaping most of the gains on NFTs.” Amongst other problems plaguing blockchain, cryptocurrencies and the metaverse independently, I recommend erring on the side of caution.
While Wood speaks of less trust and more truth in the system, I urge everyone following developments of these technologies (and investing in them) to make the most of the resources of the web today to pursue the truth about these technologies.
It is imperative that we focus on solving problems in trust, identity, and finance and the interface between this and the real world. I’d discourage those who turn to crypto for easy riches.
Exercise caution as you foray into the seemingly chaotic developments of today lest you find yourself tangled by the web.
I implore you to build decentralized trust, understand the communities you’re making and a part of, pursue and engage in projects that align with your goals and visions for the future. Pursue the truth together to aim and improve the true wealth of the community not by monetary means alone.
The future is already here. It's just not evenly distributed yet - William Gibson(This was originally published on: https://mirror.xyz/dashboard/edit/xASj3klAI_vtIY2T3m6tSxgOdU6_wNyNH8ohEYMsxG8)
